A country-specific FRAX model for Botswana.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fracture rates in Botswana were used to create a FRAX® model for fracture risk assessment. OBJECTIVE: This paper describes the development and characteristics of a country-specific FRAX model for Botswana. METHODS: Age-specific and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates was incorporated into a FRAX model for Botswana. Ten-year fracture probabilities were compared with those from African countries having a FRAX model and African Americans from the USA. RESULTS: The probabilities of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture were low compared with those from South Africa (Black and Coloured) and US Blacks. Probabilities were marginally higher than for Tunisia. CONCLUSION: The creation of a FRAX model is expected to help guide decisions about the prevention and treatment of fragility fractures in Botswana.

Epidemiology of hip fracture in Botswana.

A retrospective population-based survey in the Republic of Botswana determined the incidence of fractures at the hip over 3 years. The estimated number of such fractures nationwide for 2020 was 103 and is predicted to increase. OBJECTIVE: This article describes the epidemiology of hip fractures in the Republic of Botswana. METHODS: A retrospective patient chart review was conducted to identify from hospital registers the number of patients diagnosed with hip fracture in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture was determined from which lifetime probabilities and future projections for hip fracture were calculated. RESULTS: The incidence of hip fracture was low and comparable to rates reported from Tunisia. The remaining lifetime risk of hip fracture at the age of 50 years in men and women was 1.4 and 1.1%, respectively. The incidence of hip fracture suggested that the estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2020 was 103 and is predicted to increase by more than threefold to 372 in 2050. CONCLUSION: The hip fracture rates can be used for healthcare planning. Additionally, these data can be used to create a FRAX model to help guide decisions about treatment.